Background
On 8th August 2023, President Duda called for parliamentary elections, scheduling the date for 15th October 2023. Campaigning also began on 8th August and lasted until 14th October, the day before the election took place. Politically, Duda is affiliated with the PiS.
A television debate with all candidates was held on 9th October 2023.
Referendum
The PiS government planned a Referendum that would take place at the same time as the election on Sunday 15th October. It was their idea and they chose the questions: all of which touched on emotional issues within Poland’s highly polarised electorate. The questions focused on the following issues:
- Accepting migrants from the Middle East and Africa
- Removing a fence on the Belarus border
- Selling state assets
- Raising the retirement age
According to Poland’s National Electoral Commission (PKW), polling staff were not permitted to ask voters which ballots they wanted on Sunday: the Referendum, the Sejm and the Senate. All 3 were handed out. Only if a particular ballot was refused was it to be noted.
The OSCE found the above questions in the Referendum served to amplify the ruling party’s campaign messages on the day.
Unfortunately for the PiS, the Referendum did not meet the 50% threshold of votes required for it to amount to anything: turnout was around 40%, (FT, 17.10.23). As the OSCE points out, it was a government tactic to take emotive issues and amplify them in an attempt to knock its main competitor, Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform (KO) party. According to Raphael Minder in the FT, Tusk had urged voters to boycott the Referendum.
Issues Faced in this Weekend’s Elections
Problems faced since the last elections in 2019: Covid, third country migrants on the border with Belarus, the war in Ukraine and corresponding influx of several million Ukrainian refugees since February 2022.
Since coming to power for a second term in 2019, the PiS has limited abortion rights, regulated the judiciary and clamped down on public media. The latter two issues led to the European Commission (EC) opening infringement procedures against Poland.
The dominant issues were the economy, national security, migration, the state of democracy, relations with the EU and with Ukraine, and personal freedoms.
Main Elements of Campaign per Party
Law and Justice Party (PiS)
The incumbent ruling party focused on their achievements in office and recent social benefit promises, and on messages on national sovereignty and security: both issues that overlapped with the Referendum. In an advertisement campaign for the Referendum launched on 2nd October, the PiS said that a vote for Tusk would mean a vote for the sale of state assets, citing the Polish Energy Group PGE as an example, (OSCE).
Straight after the televised debate on 9th October, TVP1 aired a documentary called ‘For Sale’, in which it highlighted the negative consequences of privatisation that would stem from Tusk being in power. It is well known that much of Polish media has become the mouthpiece of the PiS.
PiS candidates regularly criticised Tusk ‘by alternatively employing anti-German tropes and linking him with the Russian Federation’, (OSCE). Mateusz Morawiecki, the incumbent PiS Prime Minister, referred to him as ‘the dyed fox from Brussels’ who ‘only came here to implement the guidelines of Weber and Merkel’. Weber is the leader of the European People’s Party, the EPP.
At a campaign event in Katowice on 2nd September, the Prime Minister referred to Tusk as ‘the leader of the party of crooks’. A PiS video from 25th September said that the people of Civic Platform (KO) were ‘dangerous’. This was echoed in a comment by the Prime Minister on 1st October, in which he said of Tusk: ‘This dangerous man has destroyed everything in Poland’. He also attacked Tusk’s stance on migrants, saying in a video on Twitter (X) on 14th September that ‘the KO wanted to bring anyone from Africa to Poland without checking or verification. They [KO], want to bring dangerous people to Poland’. This was one of the questions included on the Referendum.
Both PiS and the hard right Confederation used anti-migrant narratives, often highly negative and at times, xenophobic and misogynistic. On 2nd October, a Confederation MP stated in a radio show that ‘irregular migrants should be shot at the border’.
A Civic Platform campaign bus was attacked with stones on 3rd September. On 17th September, inaccurate social media posts attacked a female Civic Platform (KO) candidate. Graphic violent threats were directed at another. On 25th September, a female KO candidate was physically attacked. All of this is hardly surprising given the use of inflammatory rhetoric adopted by the PiS and Confederation parties throughout the campaign, (OSCE).
Confederation Party (Hard Right)
They voiced an intention to limit Poland’s welfare system and its’ assistance to Ukraine and to refugees: another highly emotive issue. Confederation started out well but over time, the voices of very extreme members within it came to the fore and put many voters off.
Civic Platform (KO): Tusk’s Centre Party
Tusk said he would reverse judicial changes made under the PiS; improve relations with the EU; implement health care; education reforms; and ensure women’s rights. He also pledged to revoke the stringent laws on abortion imposed by the PiS in its second term, undoubtedly mobilising the female vote in his favour.
In terms of the rhetoric from Tusk’s campaign, he did criticise the incumbent government but was less vituperative.
Third Way and New Left Parties
Both focused on social welfare issues and women’s rights.
All non PiS parties were critical of the government’s handling of Covid; corruption was an issue: including around the issuance of visas by the MFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs); and Poland’s foreign policy was a dominant feature.
Results as they Came In
Sources: Stanley Bill, Twitter (X)
https://x.com/StanleySBill?s=20
Polish National Electoral Commission: https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/frekwencja/pl
| Party | Exit Poll 15.10.23 | Early Poll 16.10.23 | Late Poll 16.10.23 | Early Poll 17.10.23, (99.95% of Districts Counted) | Final Poll 17.10.23 |
| (Figure in brackets represents estimated number of Seats/Mandates) | |||||
| PiS (Incumbent) | 36.8%(200) | 36.6%(198) | 35.86% (No seat projection given) | 35.39% (194) | 35.38%(194) |
| KO (Tusk) | 31.6%(163) | 31%(161) | 30.28% | 30.68% (157) | 30.70%(157) |
| Third Way | 13% (55) | 13.5%(57) | 14.43% | 14.41% (65) | 14.40%(65) |
| Left | 8.6% (30) | 8.6%(30) | 8.51% | 8.61% (26) | 8.61%(26) |
| Confederation | 6.2%(12) | 6.4%(14) | 7.15% | 7.16% (18) | 7.16%(18) |
Turnout was 74.38%
Analysis
There are 460 seats in total in the Lower House of Poland’s parliament, known as the ‘Sejm’. A majority is half of this plus 1 = 231. Whether as a single party or a coalition, 231 seats is the number required to have a majority and form a government.
The incumbent government PiS remained the largest single party, but their vote was down and they were well short of an overall majority with 194 seats. The opposition coalition won a majority with 248 seats between the three electoral alliances: Civic Platform, Third Way and New Left.
In the Senate (Senat) election, the three opposition alliances (Civic Platform, Third Way and New Left), formed an electoral pact, which means they did not compete against each other in the 100 constituencies. This helped them win 61 seats, compared to 34 for PiS, and 5 independents who also received opposition support. This gives the opposition, in reality, 66 seats in the Senate to PiS’s 34.
I would like to thank the British psephologist Lewis Baston for his help in analysing these figures, particularly in the Senate, of which I had no knowledge. Stanley Bell’s analysis has also been taken into account below.
PiS
PiS, in power since 2015, performed more or less as expected. It received the largest number of votes for a single party, yet it was a Pyrrhic victory as it does not enough to form a majority government without a coalition partner. The far right Confederation party was an option as a potential ‘king maker’, but even with all their votes counted, the PiS still doesn’t have enough to form a government and there are no other options available to them.
Compared with 2019, the PiS maintained its high proportion of voters with primary and basic vocational education, but its support dropped markedly among voters with secondary, post-secondary, and higher education. Four years ago in 2019, the PiS won more than 50% of Poland’s rural vote nationwide, (Politico, 13.10.23).
The main regions of electoral support for PiS are in the east of the country, in conservative rural areas such as the countryside around Chelm and Zamosc, (wbory.gov.pl).
Since last year, PiS has spent €3.30bn on subsidies for farmers; more than any other European country. One reason for this is that the EU’s Agriculture Commissioner is Polish and aligned with the PiS. As such, he allocated the largest share of funds from the EU’s Agricultural Crisis Reserve to his own country.
Recently, the PiS was criticised for unilaterally extending a ban on Ukraine grain being sold domestically in Poland after it had expired. PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, (now 74), found himself under pressure from the Confederation Party to do so. Polish farmers had complained that they were being undercut by cheaper Ukrainian grain: part of the reason Poland received the funds from the EU’s Agricultural Crisis Reserve Fund in the first place. Agriculture in many countries is largely dependent on subsidies, and the EU is one of the providers. The PiS and Confederation parties are both anti-EU.
Civic Platform
Civic Platform/Coalition (KO on above table), the party of 66 year old Donald Tusk, former President of the EU Commission and Polish Prime Minister from 2007-2014, performed better than expected. Going into the vote, the PiS maintained a strong lead over him, but that changed over time as Tusk caught up. Though his final vote share was 30.7% to Kaczynski’s (PiS) 35.38%, once the votes from the Third Way and Left party are taken into account, that’s a percentage of 53.71%, or 248 seats. This rises above the 231 seats required to form a majority coalition government.
In contrast, when you add the percentage votes from PiS (35.38%) to the result achieved by the Confederation Party, (7.16%), that’s a percentage of 38.55%, or 212 seats. A Pyrrhic victory indeed.
KO won its most enthusiastic support from young, educated voters in big cities. For instance, it polled 44.1% in the constituency including the big western city of Poznan.
Third Way
The centre right Third Way alliance performed better than expected. The Third Way (‘Trecia Droga’ in Polish), was established in April 2023 between two political parties. It wanted to provide an alternative to the incumbent Law and Justice Party (PiS), and Civic Platform (KO). The parties involved were Poland (Polska) 2050, a Christian Democratic party founded by a former TV presenter; and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), which has its roots in the 19th-century peasant movement: the original farmer’s party.
The PSL was once the dominant voice of the countryside, but was eclipsed by the PiS in the early 2010s, thanks in no small part to Commissioner Wojciechowski, who switched camps while a member of the Polish parliament, (Politico, 13.10.23).
According to Stanley Bill, the Third Way took a lot of voters from the PiS: far more than any other opposition group or party. 9% of their voters had chosen PiS in 2019, (before the Third Way was around). The Third Way also took the second highest share of voters who had not voted in the 2019 elections: 19.3%. In first place was Tusk’s Civic Platform with 30%.
The Third Way’s roots in the farmer’s movement were apparent, but the alliance won its support in all sorts of constituencies.
New Left (Lewica)
Performed slightly below expectations. Its main support was in urban industrial areas, such as Sosnowiec.
Confederation
Performed significantly below expectations. Its vote was fairly evenly distributed across the country, but slightly higher in the conservative east.
What Next?
If President Duda extends an invitation to Tusk to become Prime Minister, (despite his smaller actual vote share), he would be in a position to form a coalition government: with the Third Way and the New Left. Changes would be afoot, amongst them: ‘Relations with Brussels will return to an even keel in the wake of the change in government as the three coalition parties unite to ditch PiS politics of disdain towards the EU’, (EU Observer, 16.10.23).
Once the official results of the elections are confirmed, President Andrzej Duda must call a first session of the newly elected parliament within 30 days of the elections. He will need to designate a Prime Minister. The new Prime Minister then has 14 days to present his (there are no female candidates) program and hold a vote of confidence in Parliament. The government needs the support of majority of MPs to continue. This vote could happen as late as end of November if Kaczynski is given the first chance to form a government: despite the fact that PiS and Confederation together do not have enough votes.
The final results came in earlier today, Tuesday 17th October 2023: longer than expected given Sunday’s high turnout. Some polling stations weren’t able to close until after midnight because of the length of the queues. The election saw the highest voter turnout in Poland’s history: a record 72.9%, according to ‘Notes from Poland’. The closest to that was the first post-communist election in 1989, when that figure was 62.7%.
More than 600,000 Poles registered to vote from abroad: almost double that of four years ago. The government set a limit of 24 hours after Sunday’s poll closure to count overseas ballots, raising the possibility that some would fail to get registered in the final tally, (FT, 16.10.23).
System of Government in Poland
Parliament is composed of a Lower House (Sejm) and an Upper House (Senat), elected for a 4 year term. Members of the Senat are elected through a first past the post system in 100 single mandate constituencies. The Sejm has 460 seats/members. All 460 are elected through a proportional open list from 41 member constituencies. A party needs to have 5% of valid votes nationwide to sit in the Sejm; 8% for coalitions. So basically, you vote for a party and the seats are given proportionally, and you also vote for an individual candidate. Sejm mandates, or seats, are allocated to constituencies based on population size.
Documents Referred to:
OSCE Press Release the day after the elections, 16.10.23:
https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/555072
Full Report of OSCE findings from election, 16.10.23
https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/2/4/555048.pdf
Election results per district:
https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/2
Results and Exit Polls were finalised later than expected, due to the high voter turnout. Figures can be seen below:
Notes from Poland article on Election Results, 16.10.23:
https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/10/16/polands-election-exit-poll-in-charts/
Notes from Poland is an independent, non-profit foundation funded through reader donations. The Guardian article posted below refers to them and I found the information useful. Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EU Observer and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
‘Polling Staff should not ask voters if they want the Referendum Ballot’, Notes from Poland, 15.10.23:
Full report on election results from Notes from Poland, 15.10.23:
Article from EU Observer, 16.10.23:
https://euobserver.com/eu-political/157558
Politico article before elections, 13.10.23:
Politico article after elections, 15.10.23:
Politico article after final count, 17.10.23:
Raphael Minder for the FT, Wednesday 18th October 2023:
https://www.ft.com/content/70c1a6f8-fff7-4f70-ace2-98eb9173dc05
FT article following the elections on Sunday 15th October 2023, 16.10.23:
https://www.ft.com/content/a4447b80-da74-408b-8cdd-7bbec90613e6?shareType=nongift
The Guardian article following the elections on Sunday, 16.10.23:
Shaun Walker wrote a piece for The Guardian on the Polish government’s thoughts of ceasing military aid to Ukraine due to pressure from the hard right Confederation party, who polled lower than expected in Sunday’s election, 21.10.23:
Make Me Aware tweet on Referendum Questions, 26.9.23:
https://x.com/Make_Me_Aware/status/1706755438845608011?s=20
Make Me Aware tweet regarding Polish supply of weapons to Ukraine, with link to FT article therein, 26.9.23:
https://x.com/Make_Me_Aware/status/1706728657509589078?s=20
FT article referred to above, 24.9.23:
https://www.ft.com/content/080a68c7-e4d2-4814-915b-6b19b62e9b08
Make Me Aware tweet explaining Polish elections with Euractiv article therein, 26.9.23:
https://x.com/Make_Me_Aware/status/1706723891568312547?s=20
Eruactiv article referred to above, 21.9.23:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/video/the-2023-polish-elections-explained/
Make Me aware thread on twitter from 22nd October explaining turbulent issues in Polish politics coming under fire in the elections. Also addresses the contentious grain issue. https://x.com/Make_Me_Aware/status/1705206765485191380?s=20
Twitter thread on what to expect in the Polish elections on 15th October, Stanley Bill, Professor of Polish Studies at Cambridge University and founder of the non-profit foundation ‘Notes from Poland’ cited above, 13.10.23.
Of note from this thread, and its writer is an expert in Polish politics, is that the PiS were expected to win on Sunday. It did gain the largest number of votes, but not enough to be able to form a government; even once you take into account the votes received by its’ potential partner, the far right Confederation party, whose results were far lower than expected. As a result, Duda will probably ask Tusk to form a coalition government with the Third Way and Left parties. Stanley Bill posts excellent figures on the results as they come in, from exit poll until the final count.
https://x.com/StanleySBill/status/1712922470347391105?s=20
Comment On An Analysis on Poland’s Elections
Excellent analysis. Many thanks.