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Democratic Republic of the Congo General Election

Name: Democratic Republic of the Congo General Election
Start: 2018-12-30T00:00:00+00:00
End: 2018-12-30T23:59:59+00:00

December 30, 2018

General elections were scheduled to be held in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on 23 December 2018, but were delayed by a week to December 30.

The elections were originally scheduled to be held on 27 November 2016 to determine a successor to incumbent President Joseph Kabila, but were delayed with a broken promise to hold them by the end of 2017. According to the constitution, the second and final term of President Kabila expired on 20 December 2016.

Incumbent President Kabila is constitutionally unable to participate and a cabinet minister has stated that he will not run.

According to Article 71 of the DRC Constitution, the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is elected by plurality vote in one round. Article 72 specifies that the requirements to stand as a candidate for the presidency are being a Congolese citizen and at least thirty tears old.

Article 101 of the Constitution provides the basis for electing a National Assembly. The 500 members of the National Assembly are elected by two methods; 60 are elected from single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, and 440 are elected from 109 multi-member constituencies by open list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the largest remainder method.

Results declared

The electoral commission delayed declaration of the results until 10 January 2019.

Felix Tshisekedi, one of the opposition candidates, was declared the winner of the election with 38.5 per cent of the vote. This result was disputed by other candidates and observers, including Martin Faluyu who was widely expected to be the winner but who was officially the runner up with 34.7 per cent.

Results disputed

The Catholic Church, the only non-governmental organisation with a presence across the country, was sceptical from the start about the validity of the results:

We take note of the publication of the provisional results of the presidential election which, for the first time in the recent history of our country, opens the way to change at the top of the state… However, from the analysis of the elements observed by this mission, we find that the results of the presidential election … do not correspond to the data collected by our observation mission from the polling and counting stations. (via CNN https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/09/africa/drc-election-felix-tshisekedi-intl/index.html)

On 16 January the Financial Times published further information confirming that the results were suspect. Data that seems to come from the electoral administration’s own servers, the product of the votes cast at the voting machines across the country, shows that Mr Faluyu did indeed win the most votes cast and therefore the Presidential election. The FT further suggests that Mr Tshisekedi, having been an opponent of the regime of Mr Kabila, has dropped his opposition and now regards Kabila as a “partner for change” and may even enter a power-sharing arrangement with him.

The disputed DR Congo election has begun to attract international attention. African Union (AU) leaders meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, noted the dispute and called for the result not to be certified until further investigation (via BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46914032). The AU is a diplomatic body rather than an integrated political and economic system like the EU and tends to be cautious about making political statements. From further away, the EU is urging adherence to the electoral law and Russia is opposing an investigation.

UPDATE 21 January 2019

The constitutional court of DR Congo rejected the allegations that the election had been rigged and certified the result in favour of Tshisekedi, and regional partners in South Africa and Rwanda have offered their congratulations to the presumed winner. Although Fayulu still disputes the result and there has been growing evidence of misconduct during the election, the situation within DR Congo has not turned violent. The parallel elections for the country’s senate and primary legislative chamber have also been complicated by irregularities. These elections resulted in victory for Kabila’s electoral alliance, the Common Front for Congo, which has won large majorities.

Provided that the election results are confirmed, there will be some sort of power-sharing government between Tsishekedi and Kabila. It is possible that despite the doubts about the election it will be the country’s first legal and peaceful transfer of power between civilian governments. Power sharing could lead to healthier government and an idea of ‘checks and balances’ between politicians rather than domination and conflict. On the other hand, excluding the probable winner of the popular vote from power and Kabila and the supposed opposition figure Tsishekedi doing a backroom deal could lead to instability and more corruption.

Sources and Further Reading:

Democratic Republic of Congo presidential elections delayed

https://www.ft.com/content/6e4d1844-0471-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3

Congo opposition leader says will return home by June

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congo-politics-katumbi/congo-opposition-leader-says-will-return-home-by-june-idUSKCN1GO20Z

Congo’s war was bloody. It may be about to start again

https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21737021-president-joseph-kabila-seventh-year-five-year-term-he-struggling-hold

What next for the DRC if election goes ahead, as promised?

https://eastafricamonitor.com/next-drc-election-goes-ahead-promised/

Congo’s 2018 elections: an analysis of implausible results

https://africanarguments.org/2019/01/10/drc-election-results-analysis-implausible/

Financial Times coverage of DR Congo