The 2024 European Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 to 9 June 2024. This will be the tenth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979, and the first European Parliament election after Brexit. This election will also coincide with a number of other elections in the European Union.

Background

In the previous election held on 23–26 May 2019, the EPP Group and S&D suffered significant losses, while Renew, Greens/EFA and ID made substantial gains, with ECR and The Left had small reduction. The European People’s Party, led by Manfred Weber as Commission President candidate, won the most seats in the European Parliament. Despite this, the European Council decided after the election to nominate Ursula von der Leyen as new Commission President, and the European Parliament elected von der Leyen with 383 votes (374 votes needed). The commission was then approved by the European Parliament on 27 November 2019, receiving 461 votes.

The 2019 election saw an increase in the turnout, when 50.7% of eligible voters had cast a vote compared with 42.5% of the 2014 election. This was the first time that the tournout had increased since the first European Parliament election in 1979. In 2024, the Eurobarometer data shows that 71% of Europeans say they are likely to vote in June, 10% higher than those who said they would in 2019.

The election is expected to be one of the more contentious elections in the history of the European Parliament given the rise of right-wing parties in polling. Since the last European-wide election, the right has continued to rise across Europe with right-wing populist parties holding political power in Hungary (Fidesz), Italy (Brothers of Italy), Sweden (Sweden Democrats), Finland (Finns Party) and Slovakia (Slovak National Party) in 2024. The centre-right EPP has “raised eyebrows” among some commentators for its efforts to charm parties in the ECR to create a broad conservative block, which could upset the long-standing status-quo that has seen the EPP share power with the centre-left S&D and the centrist Renew Group.

Electoral system

Elections to the European Parliament are regulated by the Treaty on European Union, Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and the Act concerning the election of the members of the European Parliament by direct universal suffrage (the Electoral Act). The Electoral Act states that the electoral procedure is governed by the national provisions in each member state, subject to the provisions of the act.[10] Elections are conducted by direct universal suffrage by proportional representation using either a list system or single transferable vote. The national electoral threshold may not exceed 5% of votes cast.

Attempts at electoral reform

In June 2018, the Council agreed to change the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002. New provisions included a mandatory 2% threshold for countries with more than 35 seats and rules to prevent voters from voting in multiple countries. After the Act was adopted by the Council following consent given by the European Parliament in July 2018, not all member states ratified the Act prior to the 2019 elections, which took place under the old rules. As of 2023, the reform has yet to be ratified by Cyprus and Spain; Germany only ratified in summer 2023.

On 3 May 2022, the European Parliament voted to propose a new electoral law, which would contain provisions for electing 28 seats on transnational lists. As of 2024, this reform has not been approved by the Council, which must approve it unanimously, meaning the election will be conducted under the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002.

Apportionment

As a result of Brexit, 27 seats from the British delegation were distributed to other countries in January 2020 (those elected in 2019, but not yet seated took their seats). The other 46 seats were abolished with the total number of MEPs decreasing from 751 to 705 after that.

A report in the European Parliament proposed in February 2023 and passed in June 2023 to modify the apportionment in the European Parliament and increase the number of MEPs again in order to adapt to the development of the population and preserve degressive proportionality. The European Council will, by unanimity, take the final decision on the size of the European Parliament and each national seat quota. On 26 July 2023, the Council reached a preliminary agreement, which would increase the size of the European Parliament to 720 seats. On 13 September 2023, the European Parliament consented to this decision, which was adopted by the European Council on 22 September 2023.

Sources and further reading:

Politico Poll of Polls, Politico  

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/european-parliament-election/

A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections, ECFR 23.01.24

https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/