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Venezuelan presidential election 2024
July 28
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela in 28 July 2024 to choose a president for a six-year term beginning on 10 January 2025. Leading candidates of the Venezuelan opposition have been disqualified from participating in the election during its campaign or in previous elections. In June 2023, the leading candidate María Corina Machado was barred from participating by the Venezuelan government for alleged political crimes. This move has been regarded by the opposition as violation of political human rights and has been condemned by international bodies like the Organization of American States, the European Union, and Human Rights Watch, as well as countries such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, France, Germany, Mexico, Paraguay, the United Kingdom, the United States and Uruguay.
The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that the election will be held on 28 July (the day that would have been Hugo Chávez’s 70th birthday), with filing of candidacies set to run from 21 to 25 March and campaigning to be held from 4 to 25 July.
Venezuelan NGOs and political parties have denounced the use of disinformation, death threats, and physical attacks by Chavismo supporters and by the National Liberation Army (ELN), a far-left Colombian guerrilla group, on opposition candidates.
Background
Crisis in Venezuela
Since 2010, Venezuela has been suffering a socioeconomic crisis under Nicolás Maduro and briefly under his predecessor Hugo Chávez as rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages diminish the quality of life. As a result of discontent with the government, the opposition was elected to hold the majority in the National Assembly for the first time since 1999 following the 2015 parliamentary election. After the election, the lame duck National Assembly—with a pro-government majority—filled the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the highest court in Venezuela, with Maduro allies. The tribunal stripped three opposition lawmakers of their National Assembly seats in early 2016, citing alleged “irregularities” in their elections, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge President Maduro.
The tribunal approved several actions by Maduro and granted him more powers in 2017. As protests mounted against Maduro, he called for a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution to replace the 1999 Venezuela Constitution created under Chávez. Many countries considered these actions a bid by Maduro to stay in power indefinitely, and over 40 countries stated that they would not recognize the 2017 Constituent National Assembly (ANC). The Democratic Unity Roundtable—the opposition to the incumbent ruling party—boycotted the election, saying that the ANC was “a trick to keep [the incumbent ruling party] in power”. Since the opposition did not participate in the election, the incumbent Great Patriotic Pole, dominated by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won almost all seats in the assembly by default. On 8 August 2017, the ANC declared itself to be the government branch with supreme power in Venezuela, banning the opposition-led National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the assembly while continuing to pass measures in “support and solidarity” with President Maduro, effectively stripping the National Assembly of all its powers.
2018 elections and presidential crisis
In February 2018, Maduro called for presidential elections four months before the prescribed date. He was declared the winner in May 2018 after multiple major opposition parties were banned from participating, among other irregularities; many said the elections were invalid. Politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected, and considered him an ineffective dictator. In the months leading up to his 10 January 2019 inauguration, Maduro was pressured to step down by nations and bodies including the Lima Group (excluding Mexico), the United States, and the OAS; this pressure was increased after the new National Assembly of Venezuela was sworn in on 5 January 2019. Between the May 2018 presidential election and Maduro’s inauguration, there were calls to establish a transitional government.
Maduro’s new six-year term did not begin until 10 January 2019, when he took his official oath at a public ceremony in Caracas in front of the Venezuelan Supreme Court. The ceremony was attended by spectators such as Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega and Bolivian President Evo Morales. The elections were widely disputed both within Venezuela and in the broader international community. In January 2019, the National Assembly declared the results of the election invalid, and invoked clauses of the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution to install National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaidó as acting president, precipitating the Venezuelan presidential crisis. Maduro’s supporters refused to acknowledge the move, and Guaidó was placed under arrest for a short time. Several international organizations and independent countries have lined up to support either side of the conflict, and the former Supreme Tribunal of Justice of Venezuela, in exile in Panama since 2017, has given its support to the legitimacy of the National Assembly’s moves.
By January 2020, efforts led by Guaidó to create a transitional government had been unsuccessful and Maduro continued to control Venezuela’s state institutions. In January 2021, the European Union stopped recognizing Guaidó as president, but still did not recognize Maduro as the legitimate president; the European Parliament reaffirmed its recognition of Guaidó as president, and the EU threatened with further sanctions. After the announcement of regional elections in 2021, Guaidó announced a “national salvation agreement” and proposed the negotiation with Maduro with a schedule for free and fair elections, with international support and observers, in exchange for lifting international sanctions.
In December 2022, three of the four main opposition political parties (Justice First, Democratic Action and A New Era) backed and approved a reform to dissolve the interim government and create a commission of five members to manage foreign assets, as deputies sought a united strategy ahead of the 2024 elections, stating that the interim government had failed to achieve the goals it had set.
Restructuring of the National Electoral Council (CNE)
In 2020, the Committee of Electoral Candidacies, in charge of appointing a new National Electoral Council (CNE), announced that it would suspend its meetings because of the coronavirus pandemic.
2020 transitional government proposal
On 31 March 2020, the United States proposed a transitional government that would exclude both Maduro and Guaidó from the presidency. The deal would enforce a power-sharing scenario between the different government factions. Elections would have to be held within the year, and all foreign militaries, particularly Cuba and Russia, would have to leave the country. The US were still seeking Maduro’s arrest at the time of the announcement. Other aspects of the US deal would include releasing all political prisoners and setting up a five-person council to lead the country; two members each chosen by Maduro and Guaidó would sit on the council, with the last member selected by the four. The European Union also agreed to remove sanctions if the deal went ahead. Experts have noted that the deal is similar to earlier proposals but explicitly mentions who would lead a transitional government, something which stalled previous discussions, and comes shortly after the US indicted Maduro, which might pressure him to peacefully leave power.
Guaidó accepted the proposal, while Venezuela’s foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, rejected it and declared that only parliamentary elections would take place in 2020.
Recent developments
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in 2024. According to the Venezuelan Constitution, presidential elections are to take place no later than December.
In November 2022, Diosdado Cabello, vice-president of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), insisted for two consecutive days that the elections be moved forward to the first semester of 2023, pointing out that the opposition would end up confronting each other if this were the case given that the primaries to define the candidate to represent them are planned for the same year.
On 16 May 2023, the Unitary Platform would announce the holding of a primary process to choose a single candidate for the presidential elections. At the moment, 13 candidacies have been declared for the process.
On 7 February 2024, María Corina Machado and her supporters said they were attacked by colectivos during a campaign rally in Charallave, Miranda state. María Corina denounced that the attack occurred in front of security officials, who did not intervene to stop the colectivos.
On 5 March 2024, the National Election Council (CNE) announced that the election will be held on 28 July[3] with filing of candidacies set to run from 21 to 25 March and campaigning to be held from 4 to 25 July.
Sources and further reading:
US reimposes oil sanctions against Venezuela over election concerns, Al Jazeera 18.04.24
Maduro is flouting his commitment to hold free elections in Venezuela. The US must respond – carefully, Chatham House 22.03.24
Venezuela enters uncertain election year, France24 06.01.24
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240106-venezuela-enters-uncertain-election-year
