French Politics: I know we can't trust polls these days, but where are we in the polls?

French Politics: I know we can’t trust polls these days, but where are we in the polls?

By Samantha Sharp On February 17, 2017 1 Comment

Above image, in order from the left: Marine Le Pen, Francois Fillon, Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Benoit Hamon.

According to the FT today (print version today, online version 16.2.17), Marine Le Pen is predicted to win the first round of voting in April but Emmanuel Macron will beat her in the second round in May to assume the French Presidency. Francois Fillon, the once favourite before the scandal of employing his wife and child at taxpayer’s expense emerged, is in third place.

As for the candidate of the left, Benoit Hamon, he may form an alliance with far left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, as I pointed out a few articles back. This could help to pull in more votes although, in French politics, a Socialist President isn’t usually directly followed by another Socialist president (although Hollande has only served one term). It would strengthen Hamon’s chances if he were able to persuade not only Melenchon but French green party candidate, Yannick Jabot, to join up with him.

Here’s a reminder of their agendas. You will note that I have gone into greater depth on Benoit Hamon, largely because he is the one who is struggling more than the others in convincing the French electorate that he could be a good leader. I leave it to you to make your own decisions in this regard.

Le Pen. Wants to pull France out of the euro which would mean changing the French national debt from euros into francs. This, according to the FT, ‘would trigger the largest every sovereign default and effectively end the European Union’. This is the main concern. She has other proposals, obviously, and some quite good ones (well she has to really, to pull in more votes from the white working class); but this one tops the overall agenda. She might have ‘penned’ herself in with this one. Sorry for the pun. Le Pen has softened her stance on gays and xenophobic rhetoric: now she is claiming that she doesn’t mind immigrants but that preference on the job front must be given to French nationals first and she has very strong views on Muslim immigrants assimilating more into French society. She condones a more private, therefore less public display of religious preference. Islamic attire is one area where she believes that behind closed doors or in places of worship, they can do whatever they want; but not in public. Apparently. Oh and she still wants to toughen up on borders, but she’s not alone on this one.

Hamon, whose name still reminds me of the Spanish ham. He’s the socialist candidate who beat former French prime minister, Spanish born Manuel Valls, in the socialist primaries last month. Valls resigned as Prime Minster in 2016 when he decided to stand for election as socialist party leader. Hamon has slipped down in the rankings but if he seeks an alliance with the further left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, it may just tip the balance. The Socialist party has lost a lot of their centre left votes to the independent candidate Emmanuel Macron (whose name reminds me of those brightly coloured little French delicacies, macaroons). Hamon is not a favourite in economic circles. Why would this be? Let’s have a closer look at his proposals:

He wants to reform the stability and growth pact and cancel the debts that are weakening peripheral economies.
He favours ‘mutualised EU debt issuance and a common fiscal policy’ (FT, 16.2.17). This means taking the debts from the poorer countries and helping them to pay it back, basically. Let me explain: The European Union borrow money to lend out to European countries who need it. As the European Union is the borrower, they bear the responsibility of paying it back. As far as the investor is concerned, (the person who has put the money into the European Union coffers), it doesn’t matter which country ends up receiving the money: if that country are unable to pay it back, all the other countries in the union become responsible for paying it back by pooling their resources together, thereby ensuring that the investor does not lose out. This is what Hamon means when he says that he favours ‘mutualised EU debt issuance’. A ‘common fiscal policy’ means having one level of taxation across the whole European Union. Fiscal policy relates to taxation and spending.
He proposes certain labour market reforms, an example of which are the French working hours. Hamon wants to cut the working week from 35 to 32 hours. Retirement age also comes under ‘labour market reforms’ definition but I couldn’t find anything on his proposed agenda on that. Let me explain what ‘labour market reforms’ mean. They can be good for the worker but not necessarily good for the employer. Furthermore, they can sometimes hinder employment growth. What do I mean by this? Aren’t regulations protecting the worker a good thing? Well yes they are, but here’s the problem. Whilst labour market reforms make conditions more favourable to employees, they can sometimes make the employers less likely to take on new employees, particularly in times of economic uncertainty. Should the market take a turn for the worse, the employer will then struggle to get rid of the employee; so they are less likely to hire them in the first place. This is one of the problems with the European Union according to many economists. There are many who believe that excessive labour market regulations and antiquated labour market conditions are part of the reason why unemployment is so high.
Lastly, Hamon proposes a standard monthly income of £600 (approximately 700 euros at today’s exchange rates) for all French citizens, irrespective of what they do. For me, this doesn’t seem to make sense: why give that money to someone if they don’t need it? Surely it would be better to spend that money on something like education or health care reform? I have to admit I am not entirely clear on his ideas here. Does he mean giving that monthly stipend to all French citizens or only those on a lower income? Whilst I can see some benefit in it as a monthly top up for those on a lower income, it will take a clever argument for Macron to sell to some of the electorate.

Then there’s ‘Fillon Felon’, (I allude to the current allegations against him). Fillon has proposed more market-friendly reforms; that means, in favour of the economy. He wants to lower corporate taxes and taxes on labour; introduce a higher pension age (this contrasts with Le Pen’s agenda and probably Hamon’s too); longer working hours and cuts in jobs in the public sector.

Macron, the independent. The former banker and French minister for the economy has a more optimistic outlook in terms of the economy. He proposes a ‘blend of deregulation and traditional social protections’ (FT, 16.2.17). His problem: he has yet to set out all of his polices in detail which, according to the FT, is something he needs to do, and soon.

A Personal Note

I would like to thank my husband, a trader in interest rate derivatives at Credit Suisse, for giving me a better explanation on ‘mutualised debt issuance and common fiscal policy’ than I could possibly have gained by googling it. It’s his job, after all. Thank you Jumby.

For further information on the Presidential candidates :

You can always look at my previous articles covering the French presidentials, but here are a few more links, should you be interested. As always, I have tried to include references from across the political spectrum:

Who is Benoit Hamon?

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/02/who-beno-t-hamon

Who is Jean-Luc Melenchon?

http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/01/meet-jean-luc-m-lenchon-far-left-candidate-gaining-momentum-french-election

Who is Francois Fillon?

http://news.sky.com/story/francois-fillon-frances-thatcher-in-profile-10758293

http://time.com/4578232/francois-fillon-france-republicains-president-election/

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/25/politics/francois-fillon-french-presidential-election/

Who is Marine Le Pen?

http://news.sky.com/story/marine-le-pen-who-is-national-front-candidate-in-france-election-10759211

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/01/europe/marine-le-pen-profile/

Who is Emmanuel Macron?