Opinion Way/Elabe Poll for Les Echoes
Opinion Way poll shows support for all candidates is stable:
Le Pen is at 25%
Macron is at 25%
Fillon is at 20%
Melenchon is at 15%
Hamon is at 10%
Macron and Fillon will both, according to the polls, defeat Le Pen in the second round. In a Macron -v- Le Pen scenario, Macron to win 64% -v- 36%. In a Fillon -v- Le Pen scenario, Fillon to win 60% -v- 40%.
The same poll, updated yesterday, showed Macron ahead in the race with 25.5%, followed by Le Pen with 24% and Fillon with 18% (up 1% since the last Elabe poll).
Melenchon is up a point and a half to 15% and Hamon down a point and a half to 10%.
Hamon continues to lose momentum and to rank fifth in the race (a first in the history of the fifth Republic for a Socialist candidate). He is now trying to get closer to left and left-wing parties in order to attract more voters.
Melenchon is still not willing to form an alliance with Hamon, and will now more than ever (with 15% of voting intentions) not step down to let Hamon run for the ‘left’ side of the electorate.
The fragmentation on the left continues and will no doubt lead to a reshaping of the political landscape after the election.
At dinner last night I was asked who I thought would win. Macron continues to be the media darling and the polls are looking very much in his favour.
Reuters, 29.3.17, Macron on course to win French presidency
If you can read French, this one is a good one to follow. It’s the one I use for the poll updates:
The Guardian commentary on the French presidential debate between the top 5 candidates on 20.3.17:
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